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Academy Awards from the 2004-2005
season
**This page is towards the 77th Academy Awards on February 27, 2005
hosted by Chris Rock.**
It comments and forecasts on pre-nominations, nominations, predictions,
and results of the 77th Academy Awards.
1/22/04 - Informative Pre-Nominations Breakdown
The Oscar nominations are announced Tuesday the 25th's morning so a bit
after that we will know who got the nods. For now, this is how it will
most likely picture...
Overview: I hate how the best movies out in December who were once
contenders early in the year lose buzz for some reason like Big Fish and
Cold Mountain of last year. This year, the movie Kinsey might suffer
that, but it is very convincing to me it worthy of plenty of Oscar, but
that's up to the anonymous Academy ballots. In fact, Kill Bill: Volume
Two deserves to be nominated for best picture much more than movies like
Hotel Rwanda, Ray, or Sideways, but noooooo.... eight months ago is too
long for the Academy to recognize it again, like Eternal Sunshine of the
Spotless Mind.
I see the biggest winners, not nominations, go to The Aviator and
Million Dollar Baby. The Academy loves anything with the names of Clint
Eastwood, Russell Crowe, Ron Howard, and Jack Nicholson appearing in the
movie even if it is below par. Eastwood's work however is magnificent.
If The Aviator, Film Prophet's #1 Most Wanted Movie of 2004, loses to
Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby, I'd still be happy, but except the film
and director wins should go opposite ends meaning a Scorsese and Million
Dollar Baby picture win OR director Eastwood and The Aviator win.
Best Picture
The Aviator, Million Dollar Baby, Finding Neverland, Sideways, Kinsey
Best Director
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Marc Forster, Finding Neverland Alexander Payne, Sideways
Mike Nichols, Closer
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator Jamie Foxx, Ray Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland Liam Neeson, Kinsey
Best Actress
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby Annette Benning, Being Julia
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the
Spotless Mind
Uma Thurman, Kill Bill: Volume 2
Best Supporting Actor
Clive Owen, Closer Thomas Haden Church, Sideways Jamie Foxx, Collateral
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator Natalie Portman, Closer Virginia Madsen,
Sideways
Laura Linney, Kinsey Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland
1/25 Oscar Nominationed Announced Today
I got an estimated four out of five correct from every nominee mentioned
per category.
Film Prophet is happy for...
- Super Size Me for being nominated for best documentary feature while
Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11 was passed over.
- The best acting male category and for Clint Eastwood's nod since he
has never won an acting Oscar all these years... wow.
- The Aviator with the highest total nominations of 11.
- Favorable performances of Portman and Blanchett both getting nods in
the same category.
- Troy which actually got in under achievement in costume design!
- Hotel Rwanda NOT getting a nod for best motion picture of the year
- Alan Alada from The Aviator getting his first long-due Oscar
nomination... a surprise nod.
- I, Robot getting a nomination for visual effects and Spider-Man 2 as
well with two other nods.
Film Prophet is sad for...
- Liam Neeson in Kinsey not getting a nomination.
- The Polar Express getting three nods and neither were for best
animated feature.
- Zach Braff's Garden State geting no love from the Academy so far.
- Kinsey just getting one total nomination... Ray over Kinsey for best
picture was a let down.
- Napoleon Dynamite, Ocean's Twelve, The Terminal, The Day after
Tomorrow, and The Girl Next Door, receiving nothing at all... which
leads to this year's biggest Oscar upset...
KILL BILL: VOLUME 2! No Quentin Tarantino, Uma Thurman, David Carradine,
cinematography, original score, sound, or visual effects...
implausible!!
2/7 Film Prophet comments on Hilary Swank
Hilary Swank has just won the Golden Globe and SAG awards for lead
actress in Million Dollar Baby, and as an Oscar nominee, another award
is very, very likely to occur. A few days ago, I happened to find some
stunning facts on her before she became an award winning actress, which
includes an Oscar trophy already. Yea, she did bulk up about twenty
pounds and trained five hours a day of boxing for her role, every day,
but she's motivated by seeing many zeroes in her contract... there's a
little more...
-Swank grew up in a trailer and is a high school drop out.
-Her mother quit her job and moved with Hilary to Hollywood when Hilary
was fifteen so she could jumpstart her acting career and earn money,
since all they had was seventy-five dollars, a car, and a Mobil credit
card... wow. They lived in the car for several weeks.
-She got a gig on Beverly Hills 90210... later she was fired from the
show, free from that contract where she moved on to bigger things.
-Now, Swank lives in New York City and travels by subway, remains close
to her mom, has won an Academy Award for best actress for Boys Don't
Cry, which earned her only three grand, gets the royal front row
celebrity treatment, very respected, nurtures a new beautiful smile, and
got to work with Clint Eastwood in his best work in a long time.
2/15 Final Oscar update till final forecastings
Glancing at news, more than 43 million people tuned into ABC's Oscars
broadcast last year, when advertising prices averaged $1.5 million per
30-second commercials... that's just a million less than what the Super
Bowl slot went for a couple weeks ago. The show is generally the second
highest rated program of the year, with no prime long show running its
series finale.
After three straight years of Peter Jackson's trilogy of The Lord of the
Rings being nominated for best picture, box office films tend to draw in
a wider audience and help out the ratings, such as the year when Titanic
won. All five nominated features for best picture this year, however,
haven't topped a hundred million at the box office, where topping is The
Aviator's current-to-date $84 million. There is no run away this season
like ROTK. This season didn't have a dominating film where the past
three have had.
Observing the five, three are in front of control. Finding Neverland is
there to fill in a kind, gentle bio story with a fine cast and Ray was
nominated because of Jamie Foxx's much acclaimed performance. Neither
have a chance to pick up the trophy at all and for its home video
commercials to say, "Winner of best picture."
That leaves three films left where each have won over Film Prophet's
ballot. The Aviator recently picked up the Gloden Globe for drama while
Sideways picked it up for comedy/musical and the SAG award for best cast
ensemble. The Aviator is the most nominated film this year and it's an
evolving epic of an under pressure man in which is loved by the Academy,
but Million Dollar Baby with its triple threat performers is an
interesting call where Clint Eastwood won the DGA. Most critics feel the
same way. I will be happy for either film to win, but more for The
Aviator because of Scorsese always getting second runner. It possibly
could go down to either Eastwood or Scorsese winning best director or
Blanchett and Madsen for supporting actress to give clues as to who will
win during the show's airing.
Next time will appear the final forecasts showing Film Prophet's %
chance of winning odds as to which film or artist is more likely to
win... plus who Film Prophet wants to win as opposed to predicitng who
the Academy picks. That will be for the top five awards, and like last
year, I will single out the projected winners for screen plays and
technical categories.
2/23 **FINAL ACADEMY AWARD ODDS FOR 2005**
Finally, it all comes down to this... the second annual Film Prophet
Oscar predictions.
My Oscar probabilties aren't subjective and if they were, the
nominations would be different to begin with. The odds are as close to
what the 5,808 Academy members have voted for this year seeing how
everything has looked so far on preceding award cermonies.
The precentage odds are based on a total of 100% per each major category
where the higher percentage is, the greater chance there is to win per
nominee. The major Oscar winners will be marked green after the show.
Here they are...
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
The Aviator (33%)
Million Dollar Baby (32%)
Sideways (31%)
Finding Neverland (3%)
Ray (1%)
BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby (40%)
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator (38%)
Alexander Payne, Sideways (10%)
Taylor Hackford, Ray (7%)
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake (5%)
BEST ACTOR (I hope I get this one wrong)
Jamie Foxx, Ray (50%)
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby (20%)
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator (17%)
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda (11%)
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland (2%)
BEST ACTRESS
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby (45%)
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake (16%)
Annette Bening, Being Julia (15%)
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (14%)
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace (10%)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby (41%)
Clive Owen, Closer (29%)
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways (25%)
Alan Alda, The Aviator (4%)
Jamie Foxx, Collateral (1%)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator (35%)
Natalie Portman, Closer (30%)
Virginia Madsen, Sideways (25%)
Laura Linney, Kinsey (8%)
Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda (2%)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Charlie Kaufman, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (55%)
Brad Bird, The Incredibles (30%)
John Logan, The Aviator (5%)
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake (3%)
Keir Pearson & Terry George, Hotel Rwanda (2%)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor, Sideways (70%)
Paul Haggis, Million Dollar Baby (20%)
David Magee, Finding Neverland (6%)
Jose Rivera, The Motorcycle Diaries (3%)
Richard Linklater, Before Sunset (1%)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Incredibles (95%)
Shrek 2 (3%)
Shark Tale (2%)
BEST ART DIRECTION: The Aviator
CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Aviator
COSTUME DESIGN: The Aviator
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Super Size Me
FILM EDITING: The Aviator
MAKEUP: The Passion of the Christ
ORIGINAL SCORE: Finding Neverland
ORIGINAL SONG: Accidentally in Love by Counting Crows, Shrek 2
SOUND EDITING: The Incredibles
SOUND MIXING: Ray
VISUAL EFFECTS: Spider-Man 2
2/28 Last Word on this year's Oscars
So, not bad at all. My top percentage odds went EIGHT out of NINE and as
a total overall and I went SIXTEEN out of TWENTY.
I'd say the biggest surprise win was from best motion picture to Million
Dollar Baby because Eastwood won director too over Martin Scorsese for
The Aviator. M$B won both and didn't split it with The Aviator... The
Aviator won the most awards, but not the precious two. "Film Prophet, I
didn't even know about Million Dollar Baby until January of 2005
though!" Yea, it just cut the deadline for Oscar nominations and the
movie is praiseworthy to be credited as the best picture of the Oscar
season.
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